I’m
voting conservative in this year’s presidential election.
“What?”
Says Yer Man up in Pearl River. “Where’s your James Connolly now?”
I’m
throwing in my lot with Hillary Clinton, even though I swore I’d never darken
her door again after she voted to invade Iraq.
Basically,
Donald Trump scares the living daylights out of me. Now I won’t even get into his
rooster ranting on the tape with Billy Bush. Anyone who has heard him on Howard
Stern knows full well where he stands on such matters; besides, women are only
dying to clean his clock on Nov. 8th.
Mr.
Trump claims there’s a media bias against him. Nothing could be further from
the truth for he’s been given a free pass on his woeful economic and security
policies this whole campaign.
I
will say one thing for him – he does recognize that investing in infrastructure
is vital for our changing economy.
If
there’s one thing that the Great Recession has made clear – Keynesian economics
works. When the economy stagnates it behooves the government to invest in it.
Look at how quickly the US economy has recovered compared to the European model
where austerity policies were favored.
So
is Mr. Trump a disciple of Keynes? Well, yes, in the sense that he believes in
borrowing to promote growth – with the caveat that he prefers to renegotiate loans
and has no problem in declaring bankruptcy.
This
would not be a prudent way to run the country, as was shown when the markets
swooned on his suggestion that he would renegotiate federal loans; talk about
delivering a Ringsend uppercut to US creditworthiness and the dollar.
Worse
still, he favors massive tax cuts that he claims would create a tidal wave of
revenue. Bitter experience, however, suggests that this traditional Republican
fiscal policy rarely works.
No
problem for Mr. Trump seeing that he doesn’t pay federal taxes anyway; but
infrastructure spending plus massive tax cuts equals staggering deficits.
Now
it may seem that I often put undue emphasis on the health of financial markets,
but collapsing stock prices are anathema to the many Americans dependent on
401(k) accounts for retirement. Be warned - the occasional time Mr. Trump’s
poll numbers rise the markets correspondingly dive.
Notwithstanding
his threat of pitchfork revolution Wall Street does not fear reform under a
Trump presidency; however it trembles at his general untrustworthiness and the
likelihood that he might cause another “huge” recession.
I
share Wall Street’s pain – recessions are no fun. So despite Iraq, emails and the hubris that swirls around
the Clinton family I’m voting conservative. At least Mrs. Clinton is unlikely
to declare bankruptcy and turn the US into another Atlantic City.
Let’s
take a look at security, and making America great again. Is that code for invading
other countries, blowing the hell out of their infrastructures, and then spending
billions rebuilding – not to mention slaughtering and maiming their inhabitants?
None of the last wars of choice
have been successful. Raw power doesn’t do the trick any more, as was shown in
Iraq where a $15 IED could blow up a $150K US Army Humvee. The world has become
very complicated and interconnected; it has little tolerance for Mr. Trump’s
bull in a china shop tactics.
As
for slapping tariffs on Mexico and China - be prepared for economic wars and the
loss of millions of jobs. Also brace yourself for rising prices on imports that
will lead to inflation, soaring interest rates, and another recession. Let’s
not even revisit the ridiculous idea of a wall that Mexico will pay for.
I suppose I should mention that Mr.
Trump’s ongoing xenophobic and provocative statements have once again exposed
the ugly seam of racism and know-nothing extremism that is only too willing to
surface in times of national stress.
But I’ve little doubt that once he
has lost the election and his “brand” has suffered financially that a kinder,
gentler Trump will re-emerge. Let’s hope his followers – many of whom have
genuine grievances – will then see him for what he really is as the door slams
behind him in his ivory New York tower.
As
for me, I’m voting conservative this year. I think the ghost of James Connolly
will understand.
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