INFLATION - TARIFFS - MASS DEPORTATION

Inflation is likely to be the main issue in the November elections. Not current inflation, now nearing the Fed’s desired 2% but rather the inflation that spiked in 2022.

There are those who argue that since over a million American citizens died and many businesses slowed or shut down during the pandemic, we got off fairly lightly, particularly since the economy bounced back so quickly.

But who to blame for the rise in prices? Well, in hindsight, the Biden administration probably pumped an excess of federal funds into the economy in order to prevent a meltdown; still, it’s hard to blame them given that the Obama crew didn’t commit enough resources, thereby allowing the Great Recession to linger for years longer than necessary.

Post-pandemic prices spiraled because of ongoing shortages; this was compounded  by supply routes taking time to work effectively again, what with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea.

We’ll never know just how prevalent price gouging was – except to note that overall corporate profits have remained high, especially since 2021.

Without government controls, prices tend to go up like a rocket but come down like a feather. In other words, unless you stop buying a product, few corporations are likely to drop their prices.

It’s important to remember that the US is not alone, in almost all 44 advanced economies prices rose substantially. 

So what economic policies can we expect from the two current presidential candidates?

Vice-President Harris will likely continue President Biden’s economic policies, after all, the US has the world’s best economic recovery from the pandemic. She also promises to take on big corporations that engage in price gouging, particularly in the food and grocery sectors.

The Biden administration invested much in infrastructure, and chip manufacture, both of which should pay dividends in the coming years; and with interest rates likely to fall, the housing market should bounce back – all of which could allow her a certain amount of economic cruise control.

Harris campaign officials, however, insist that she’ll honor Biden’s pledge to reduce the $35 Trillion National Debt by $3 Trillion over 10 years through raising taxes on corporations and high earners.

Republicans used to care greatly about such deficits, not to mention free trade. Yet President Trump has declared that if re-elected he will introduce a tariff of from 10% to 20% on all imported goods, with the Chinese having to pony up 60%.

This is a surefire recipe for inflation as import prices will rise accordingly. Guess who’ll pay the piper?

As an example, back in 1930, in an effort to protect local industries and farmers after the stock market crash, the US introduced high tariffs. Not surprisingly, other countries retaliated with their own tariffs, a trade war ensued, commerce decreased, currencies were devalued, all leading to a worldwide depression.

One would think Mr. Trump is aware of such consequences. But then Mexicans paid for the wall he built for them, didn’t they?

Speaking of which, Mr. Trump’s proposed immigration policies are hardly inflation-proof. From what one gathers, he plans to round up millions of illegal immigrants, intern them, then send them back from whence they came.

This proposal would have caused wholesale alcoholic consternation up on Bainbridge Avenue back in the day, but young Irish illegals appear to be giving us a pass. As an outward bounder remarked to me in a Dublin Airport bar, “The States is too stressful, the craic is way cooler down under.”

The Pew Research Center estimates that the current unauthorized immigrant population is in the 12 million range. Even deporting 1 million for starters, as JD Vance suggests, would be a monumental task – who does the arresting, the cities, states or the Feds? Where do you keep the apprehended, where do you send them? Who pays for it?   

And from an inflation point of view who replaces these low paid workers? Their loss would cause wages, and inflation, to soar. Fancy a job picking lettuce in California or processing poultry in Pennsylvania?

Tariffs rarely work but can cause damage beyond inflation, history will testify to that - particularly the rise of authoritarianism in the 1930’s, as for mass deportation, ever try living in a police state?

Very few economists predicted post-pandemic inflation, though it seems obvious now. But a country that introduces mass tariffs, not to mention mass deportation, does so at its own peril.

SAY GOOD NIGHT TO INSOMNIA

Having trouble sleeping? Welcome to the crew! According to the National Health Institute up to 70 million Americans suffer from chronic sleep disorders.

As a little boy I remember standing in my cot longing for sleep but, as luck would have it, I was an early reader and books took care of my early sleeping blahs.

 

Nor do I recall much insomnia during my marijuana days; then again, I don’t remember much else either.

 

My problems began in earnest when Chris Byrne and I formed Black 47. In the early days we were doing 3 to 4 long sets a night - home late, up early.

 

Soon enough, Black 47 was hitting the roads of America. Fatigue, booze, and non-stop Rock ‘n’ Roll adrenalin were ever present, with the result that for 25 years I’d wake up after 3 hours no matter how tired. 

 

In some ways it was a boon because I was leading a double life as a playwright/novelist, and there’s nothing quite like the hours between 3 and 6am for silence and concentration.

 

I guess these solitary nights are something I share with President Trump, maybe he should take up guitar and write an Echo column to get him through his querulous sentry-duty while the world is slumbering.

 

Perhaps it’s the coming election but I recently figured I should do something about my insomnia. I had heard about Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), but also that it was hard to gain entry to a program, and insurance might not cover the cost.

 

By chance I came upon a book, Say Good Night to Insomnia by Gregg D Jacobs, PH.D. I was skeptical but gave it a whirl. It’s no miracle scroll, but it does poke holes in some bedrock assumptions.

 

I can’t recall ever sleeping 8 hours a night. The bould Dr. Jacobs says, “no big deal.”  Some people may need 8 hours, but chances are you don’t – especially as you grow older. You hear that Mr. Trump? 

 

You can’t imagine the weight that lifted off my shoulders. Dr. Jacobs’ next piece of advice was - don’t worry about not being able to function the day following a night’s tossing and turning. Muscle memory will get you through.

 

I knew that well from all the nights on the road, (although I do confess that one St. Patrick’s Day on the Conan O’Brien Show -  from sheer fatigue I forgot some lines from my own song, James Connolly. Despite the near mortal fright this lapse occasioned, no one even noticed that I’d executed Mr. Connolly a verse too soon.)

 

The good book offers all sorts of garden-variety advice that you probably know, such as get plenty of exercise, and if you indulge in caffeine, do it before noon; eat your food and drink your poison long before bedtime, read a book rather than scroll through social media, and keep the bed exclusively for sex and sleeping.

 

Then comes the good stuff. If, like me, you wake between 3 and 4am like clockwork – don’t freak. And don’t allow the “glooms, as Molly Bloom calls them, to overwhelm you. Rather than lie there fretting, get up and walk around for a short while or read a book, but don’t you dare cast a glance at your damned phone!

 

Then back into bed with you, find a comfortable position and think of something that brings you some joy; lately I’ve been mentally meandering around my grandfather’s long-gone farm. 

 

Then think of a word – it can be anything: a recent favorite of mine (don’t tell the lads) has been “love” – its soft, silent sound seems to calm the heart and dull the most jagged of nerves.

 

This “therapy” doesn’t always work, but you can’t imagine my joy upon waking to find that I have indeed snoozed off for another couple of hours, and the morning is well under way.

 

Much of the book is devoted to substituting positivity for stress, and the overriding message is – don’t be so hard on yourself. Others will take care of that for you.

 

I can’t say I’m a new man but Say Good Night to Insomnia has made a difference, leading me to wonder what kind of person President Trump might morph into with a couple of extra hours sleep under his belt every night?