There was a time when it would have been hard to imagine
that two men the like of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson could change the
political landscapes of the USA and the UK.
How did they manage such a herculean task? They shifted the
sympathies of the white working classes of both countries from left to right of
center.
The albatross of Brexit may prove to be too big a burden in
the UK but in the short term it has delivered many longstanding Labour seats to
the Conservatives.
Amazingly this shift has, at least economically, brought the
island of Ireland within shouting distance of unity.
Will Loyalists go along with this seeming fait accompli –
that’s a whole other question? But with his ability to lie and cajole Boris
Johnson may be the one person who can finally silence the echoes of “Ulster
will fight and Ulster will be right.”
Is it my imagination or does October 2016 seem more like
thirty years ago rather than a mere three?
Cast your mind back to the month before the presidential election
that changed everything.
It was then I first began hearing from working and lower
middle class communities that “everyone around here is voting for Trump.”
At first it was a trickle but by election day it was all too
apparent that many voters had a visceral dislike of Mrs. Clinton and were willing
to gamble their ballots on the unlikeliest of Republican candidates, Donald
Trump.
In a perfect storm he won the presidency by 79,646 votes in
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania despite gaining only 46.4% of the national
vote.
My research is decidedly unscientific – emails from friends
and activists around the country and visits to various watering holes, but I’m
finding that the affection of the working class for the billionaire from Fifth
Avenue has if anything deepened.
What’s the attraction? “The economy stupid” is a factor but a
shared sense of grievance – an “us against them” factor is bone deep. Add a
deep-seated fear that the US is headed in the wrong direction and you have a bond
that won’t be easily sundered.
What’s really striking is that the working and lower-middle
classes are in general not profiting from the strong economy.
Unemployment is at a record low but “the good jobs are
gone,” is the refrain I hear most – replaced by minimum wage positions that
provide little hope of entry into middle-class life.
It goes without saying that few from this new nether-class
have profited from the amazing stock market gains of 2019.
In fact most bar-owners I speak to long for the good old “shot
and beer” days that have been replaced by their former working class customers
hurrying home with a discount six-pack to watch Fox News.
Can the Democrats win the upcoming presidential election? Sure
they can. After all, Mr. Trump could self-destruct.
The ignorance, braggadocio and self-delusion that led to the
assassination of Iranian General Qassim Suleimani is never far from the
surface.
Mr. Trump’s split second “kill” decision will inevitably have
long-term consequences, but in this current election cycle will probably play
out like the patriotic jamboree that accompanied the disastrous invasion of
Iraq back in 2003.
If so, Democrats may need a perfect storm of their own to
win in November.
They’ll need to turn out the youth vote in unprecedented
numbers - a shaky proposition at the best of times. Young people may be aghast
at climate change and the world they’re inheriting but they can be ambivalent
about voting.
Most African-Americans will vote Democrat but the candidate
better provide a riveting Vice-Presidential choice like Stacy Abrams. This
powerful campaigner could turn Georgia and galvanize her community to vote in
numbers large enough to make a difference.
Suburban women will vote Democrat this year but it’s sobering
to remember that Mr. Trump won a majority of white women in 2016.
The bulk of the white working class vote is lost for the
foreseeable future but there are those who still long for the old shot and beer
days. Peel them off in sufficient numbers and you have the beginnings of a
counter-revolution.
Remember Mr. Trump only won in 2016 by 79,646 votes.